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2018-01-15
What can we expect from 2018?

This week, we look ahead at 2018 and discuss what we expect to be the key drivers in the currency markets. We also take the opportunity to update our forecasts for the next twelve months with particular focus on the dollar given its recent slide.

 

 

GBPUSD

Sterling is starting 2018 as a dominant force against the dollar after touching $1.38 this morning – its highest level since Britain voted to leave the European Union back in June 2016. The move higher is primarily the result of a weaker dollar (note, sterling is broadly unchanged against the euro) amid speculation that other central banks (primarily the ECB and BoJ) will start to play catch up with the Fed in 2018 when it comes to tightening monetary policy.

 

The big focus in 2017 was on the Fed’s tightening cycle and as an investor, you don’t want to buy into stories that have already played themselves...



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2018-01-08
A look back at 2017

 

After another year dominated by political uncertainty in Europe and changes in monetary policy across the globe, we shouldn’t be too surprised that the currency markets look very different to how they did this time last year. In traditional fashion, we take this opportunity to look back at how our forecasts fared in 2017 before looking ahead to what we might expect from 2018 in next week’s report.

 

 

GBPUSD

 

Our bullish call for GBPUSD in 2017 was by and large a good one. Despite the political uncertainty in the UK created by the snap election and the ongoing Brexit negotiations, the pound had a very good year against the dollar, advancing more than 10%. As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bp (+25bp in March, +25bp in June and +25bp in December). However, the fact that the last hike was delayed until December and the rhetoric was less hawkish than expected...



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2017-12-18
FX Volatility: Gone but not forgotten…

FX volatility has been remarkably compressed during the second half of 2017; however there are a number of signs that these placid conditions may be about to change…

 

Twas the night before Christmas

And all through the house

Not a creature was stirring

Not even a mouse…

 

A Visit from St. Nicholas

Clement Clarke Moore, 1837

 

As we head into the festive season, the markets are as quiet as the slumbering household in Clement Clark Moore’s classic poem.  Currencies, rates, commodities and equities are all trading at multi-year lows with respect to implied volatility – thankfully we have Bitcoin (with newly launched futures contracts now pricing in a rise to about $20,000 next month, up from about $1,000 at the start of the year!) to keep us on our toes! As we look forward into 2018, it is worth asking what factors could shake the the markets from their torpor and whether we are likely to see...



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