Recent Articles

What’s next for the Fed?

When the FOMC decided to leave rates on hold earlier this month, Yellen cited slowing growth in the first quarter of 2017 as “transitionary” leaving the market with the belief that tighter policy will be forthcoming in the months ahead amid “solid” job gains and continued growth in consumer spending. The median forecast of Fed officials was for an additional two quarter point hikes this year and the markets increased the odds of a June hike from 70% to 90%.


After May’s payroll figures (see chart below) showed a stronger than expected +211k increase in April  exceeding the consensus forecast for a gain of +185k and suggesting that the previous months’ reading of a downwardly revised 79k was just a blip in what has otherwise been a gradually improving trend, the futures market now has a hike next month as a certainty. Despite this, the dollar has continued to remain under...

more >
Household indebtedness at its peak?

We spoke a couple issues back about the dramatic reversal the Canadian dollar has seen against its US namesake over the last couple of months. As was mentioned in this All Eyes are on Canada issue, CAD went from one of the best performing currencies in the G10 in 2016, to trading at near 2 year lows. As was rightfully pointed out, much of this weakness can be attributed to a couple of key factors; notably the NAFTA/trade-war between the two nations, falling energy prices, and general USD strength as market participants expect US interest rates to continue to rise.


On the back of this issue, I wanted to take this opportunity to dig a little deeper into another issue afflicting not only the Canadian economy, but many other developed markets which have found themselves sustaining growth with substantially accommodative monetary policy – a rampant rise in personal debt levels, unsupported...

more >
Macron and the EUR

Does Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French election signal a turning point for the single currency?


Macron’s decisive victory in the French presidential election yesterday, in which he garnered 66% of the vote, was met with indifference by the currency markets.  At the time of writing, EURUSD is trading at about 1.0950, the exact same level it rallied to following the 1st round of the election two weeks ago.   For many, a Macron triumph over the Marine Le Pen signifies nothing less than the decisive defeat of the Eurosceptic forces which brought us Brexit, and threatened to collapse the entire European project, including the euro itself.  If the high-water mark of European populism has now been reached, and the existential political risks facing the euro are in retreat, why has the currency not strengthened more dramatically?


Aside from the short-term reality that a Macron victory was largely priced in anyway, there are...

more >
Older Entries >>>


White Papers


FX Hedging:

10 Common Pitfalls


Commodity & FX Risk:

An Integrated Approach


The Corporate Use of Credit Derivatives:

Where Next?


Corporate Hedger’s Guide to Basel III


Currency Volatility – Are markets nearing an inflection point?



Private Equity


 “The Validus team understand how private equity thinks about financial risk management issues and they are rigorous in the way they help our portfolio companies to understand and mitigate their risks.”


James Markham, Partner – Portfolio Management, Graphite Capital LLP


FX and Commodity Risk


“Validus provides us with independent strategic advice relating to our long-term currency and commodity risk management program.  The people are extremely capable and collaborate very well with our finance and operations teams here at JD Irving.”


Mark Bettle, Director, J.D. Irving Ltd.


Commodity Risk


“Validus worked with us to develop a comprehensive commodity risk management programme – their analysis was both insightful and actionable.   We particularly value their independence, and they continue to work alongside our internal team to ensure our commodity price risks are managed effectively”

Gerry Gray, Finance Director, Strix Ltd.


FX, Commodity & Interest Rate Risk


“Validus comes up with risk management solutions that are innovative and comprehensive but practical to implement, that is their strength compared to other consulting companies we have worked with in the past.  Validus provided valuable insights into how FX, interest rate and commodity risks impact our organisation, and provide actionable recommendations and solutions.”


Andrew Ayres, Finance Director, U-POL Ltd.

Recent Comments