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24th November 2014
This week we take a closer look at how expectations for relative monetary policy are keeping the dollar firm against its peers

After a relatively quiet start to last week, the People’s Bank of China grabbed the headlines on Friday by announcing a surprise 40 basis point cut to its benchmark lending rate. The move comes after the world’s second largest economy grew at its slowest pace in five years in the third quarter and offers a stark reminder (as if we needed it) that the global economic recovery remains fragile at best.

 

Meanwhile, Mario Draghi also did his bit to try and inject some confidence into the Eurozone economy on Friday saying that the ECB would “do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible” (implying that further stimulus is on its way). There had been a suggestion that the ECB would wait until the New Year before engaging additional easing measures, thereby giving the committee an opportunity to assess the impact of the tactics...



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17th November 2014
Is this the most important chart in the world?

“The chart of the US dollar is by far and away the most important chart on earth.  If we break the trend line we will be entering potentially one of the biggest dollar bull markets in decades, if not ever.  This would be the biggest technical break in the history of fiat currencies.  Considering the dollar is the world’s funding currency this has the ability to create havoc on the unprecedented $ 5 trillion carry trade – with China at the epicentre.”

 

Raoul Pal, The Global Macro Investor

Former co-manager of GLG Global Macro Fund 

October 2014

 

 

Chart I: The USD Index (trade-weighted) 1971 – present…

 

 

 

The USD dollar has been trending lower since the mid-1980s.  In fact, against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, the USD is worth less than 60% of what it was worth at its peak, which occurred almost exactly...



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6th November 2014
Our Inaugural ‘Alpha & Ammo’ Shooting Event

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