29th June 2015
The newspaper headlines over the weekend have left many with the impression that a Grexit is imminent. Indeed, after all the ‘hints’ in recent weeks: the IMF saying that a Grexit is a possibility (28 May), Cameron preparing plans for Grexit, and finally the overall ultimatum style of negotiations, – one could be forgiven for thinking that Greece will be using drachma tomorrow.
Quick recap. The EU proposed a deal involving more austerity in return for a more financing, but the Greek government found the demands outrageous and called a referendum for July 5 for or against the package. Capital controls were introduced today, with individuals allowed a maximum cash withdrawal of EUR60 a day. Senior European officials are making verbal interventions and calling for lifting capital controls as soon as possible and keeping Greece in Eurozone.
We do acknowledge that the probability of a Grexit has heightened. Negotiating with Greece has...
22nd June 2015
"Despite the soft first quarter, the fundamentals underlying household spending appear favorable and consumer sentiment remains solid. Looking ahead, the Committee still expects a moderate pace of GDP growth, with continuing job gains and lower energy prices supporting household spending."
June 17, 2015
The US dollar touched a four month trade-weighted low last week, the euro remained towards the upper end of its recent range, and the British pound was the top performer of the world’s major currencies, jumping about 2% against the dollar.
These moves came against the backdrop of an improving assessment of US economic fundamentals by the Federal Reserve and hints that rates may rise this year after all, the increasing level of speculation about an imminent Eurozone breakup due to the Greek crisis, and not much of anything happening in the UK (apart from some decent retail sales figures and a jump in average earnings).
On the surface,...
15th June 2015
Photograph taken by Validus account executive Andriana Goudis at a Greek restaurant in Bristol (UK)
“Over two decades we destroyed our production capacity and industry. In the first decade of this century, after entry into the EMU, we could also excessively borrow at low rates, and we did. As a result, we became a country of importers – while we received the money from the EU with one hand we did not invest with the other hand in new and competitive technologies. Everything went into consumption. The result was that those who produced something closed their factories and opened import companies because they could make more money with this.”
Former Greek Minister of Economics
It was not a particularly good week-end for the Greeks. The national football team was beaten 2-1 by the Faroe Islands (population 49,500), consigning the 2004 European champions to the bottom of their qualifying group for the...