news archive


Brexit-watch

Like the presenters of the BBC’s Springwatch, the nation is sitting out in the proverbial cold eagerly awaiting signs of life in the political landscape.   At the end of last week Teresa May and Andrea Leadsom emerged as the Prime […]



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Updated Currency Forecasts

In this week’s report, we take a look at our updated forecasts for our four main currency pairs post Britain’s decision to leave the European Union and discuss the key factors that we expect to influence the currency markets in […]



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Vote Leave Wins the Referendum – What Now?

The shock around the world at Vote Leave winning the referendum has seen the biggest fall in the Pound since it floated in 1972, breaking the lows of 2009 against the dollar.  The volatility continued at unprecedented levels through Friday […]



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Brexit: What is priced in?

It’s impossible not to talk about Brexit this week and one of the questions we’ve received is: what is already priced in? Looking at GBPUSD and GBPEUR over the last month, we can see how much volatility currency markets are […]



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Brexit poses challenge for Central Bankers

After another weekend of new polls showing Brexit gaining in popularity, the split between the leave and remain camp is almost as tight as it has been since David Cameron announced the referendum on 20th February. Unsurprisingly, the pound has […]



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The Fed’s next move

Last Friday’s US jobs report shocked the markets with substantially weaker data than expected. Non-farm payrolls rose by a dismal 38,000 in May (well below the consensus forecast of 160,000). Furthermore, the previous two months’ readings were revised down by […]



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Remember Grexit?

Last week, the IMF signed off on another ‘extend and pretend’ loan for Greece.  Despite admitting that Greece’s debt is unsustainable, the IMF is unwilling or unable to do anything about it.  It will almost certainly take another crisis to […]



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Rate hike on the table, markets not yet fully convinced

Last week the Fed released the minutes from its April 26-27 meeting, in which they indicated that a second rate hike may come as early as this summer. This hawkish statement was consistent with an earlier interview of two Fed […]



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The Tax of Ultra-Low Interest Rates

We need some rethinking of the conduct of monetary policy. We have to wonder whether the current regime of monetary policy has a bias toward the creation of too much debt…it may lead to excess debt creation by giving the […]



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Will the Fed hike before the election?

Last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls showed the US economy added the fewest number of jobs in April since September last year. Headline payrolls increased by 160,000 in April compared to a consensus forecast of 200,000 although the unemployment rate remained steady […]



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