news archive


Trump and the Dollar

What a difference a month can make.  Back in August, following a number of seemingly terminal errors (insulting the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq being the most egregious) the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency seemed remote.  […]



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Draghi’s Dilemma

The ECB’s decision to do nothing last week, leaving interest rates on hold and failing to extend or increase its €80 billion a month bond-buying programme, might be considered a non-event from a financial markets perspective.  This interpretation suggests that, […]



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Was Carney too quick to cut?

Back in August, the MPC was quick to respond to the economic threats of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union by cutting interest rates, increasing QE by almost 20% (including an expansion into the corporate bond market) and launching […]



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Has Yellen Reignited the Long USD trade?

The US dollar rally which kicked off about 5 years ago amidst (still unresolved) fears surrounding the viability of the euro, and saw the USD index surge by about a third (see chart) by 2015, has stalled for the past […]



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What can we expect from Jackson Hole?

After two months of relative calm in the financial markets, with many traders citing ‘holiday season’ for the lack of volatility, this week sees central bankers meeting in Wyoming for their annual symposium at Jackson Hole. In the absence of […]



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Is the UK nearing a current account crisis?

Currently, the UK’s current account deficit is at its highest value since the 1940’s, at 6.9% of GDP, a level that is only comparable to underdeveloped countries such as Honduras, Colombia and Panama. This means that the UK relies on […]



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Carney’s First Move: Fundamentals vs Positioning

Mark Carney took the helm at the Bank of England over three years ago, and proceeded to do very little (in monetary policy terms) for 37 straight months; no changes in interest rates, no changes in the quantitative easing programme, […]



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Dollar slides as Fed maintain cautious stance

As widely expected, the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, announced a vote of no change to monetary policy following last week’s FOMC meeting. Many of the headlines in the mainstream press suggested a relatively hawkish statement, drawing on the Yellen’s comment […]



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The Fed’s Vapid Desire to Hike Rates

The Federal Open Market Committee is discussing the rate decision this week. We do not expect the Fed to hike, and we discuss why some FOMC members are apprehensive of a rate hike. At the same time, we do not […]



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Brexit: A Catalyst, Not a Cause

In the post-Brexit soul-searching that has gone on over the past three weeks or so, there is no doubt that sterling has had a starring role to play.  For many, the pound’s dramatic fall is cited as proof that Brexit […]



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