news archive

Is it time to hit the panic button yet?

One of the biggest points of contention in financial circles these days is the interpretation of the flattening yield curve. With rising short-term interest rates and a low term premium, the spread between yields on the short and long end […]

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Raise rates or unwind QE or both?

In last week’s report, we discussed the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates in August and concluded that it is now a high probability event following the publication of a relatively hawkish set of minutes from the […]

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Expectations rise for the UK (and we’re not talking about the World Cup!)

As widely expected, the Bank of England voted to keep the base rate unchanged at 0.50% during last week’s meeting. The main surprise however, was on the minutes from the meeting (published at the same time as the rate announcement) […]

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A Tale of Two Central Banks

I want to start with a plain English summary of how the economy is doing.  The economy is doing very well. Jay Powell, Federal Reserve Chair June 13th, 2018   The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly […]

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Has the USD peaked?

‘Next week the (ECB’s) Governing Council will have to assess whether progress so far has been sufficient to warrant a gradual unwinding of our net purchases.”   Peter Praet, Chief Economist, ECB, June 6 2018   EURUSD has had a […]

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Eurozone uncertainty rears its ugly head

Another week on and another Eurozone crisis appears to have been averted (for the time being). Last week started with Italian bond yields rising sharply (the yield on the 2-year bond rose to 2.76% its high level since August 2012 […]

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The US dollar continues to rally on the economy and risk aversion, but can it continue?

Global growth has become of significant concern to market participants over the past few months, resulting in a decline in risk appetite. With Europe underperforming, global trade tensions growing, and rates pushing borrowing costs to levels not seen in many […]

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Who stands to gain from the higher oil price?

After a relatively quiet period, oil seems to be finally back in the news again. Last week we saw Brent Crude flirting with the $80/bbl mark amid a flurry of political and economic crises in Venezuela, Russia and Iran. However, […]

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Have we seen the first hints of a UK recession this year?

Is it Sterling, is it Brexit? Nope – It’s snow. That was the verdict last week that the Bank of England gave on the Q1 2018 UK GDP figures which showed the UK economy barely crossing the line at just […]

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Is It Time for a USD Correction?

As those who watch the FX markets know all too well, whilst currencies have a tendency to trend, they seldom do so in a straight line. Corrections occur for many reasons. It could be that market positioning becomes so concentrated […]

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