news archive

Inflation, Deflation & the Carry Trade

How do inflation expectations impact the currency markets, and can we use this information to try and predict future exchange rates?

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The Most Important Economic Debate Ever (or at least for the last 30 years)…

Inflation or deflation? Which of these two economic bugbears represents the greater threat to our economic future? The answer to this question is the most important question facing international economic policy-makers today…

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Awaiting the Return of FX Volatility…

Despite a brief spike following Ben Bernanke’s taper talk back in May, currency volatility has remained relatively contained so far this year. However, signs are increasing that we may be set for a break-out…

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Will the real currency manipulator please stand up?

Last week’s US Treasury Report on international trade singled out Germany for criticism, based on its strong export performance and positive trade balance. But in an environment where quantitative easing has become a standard economic policy tool, it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify who is cheating who…

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The Sensible Central Banker

The governor of the Bank of Canada does not have the same profile as his counterparts at the Fed or the Bank of England. However, his approach to central banking offers lessons that his colleagues would do well to emulate…

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Why the US Debt Ceiling Resolution is both dollar Positive and dollar Negative…

“Anyone who isn’t confused doesn’t really understand the situation”
Edward R Murrow
American Journalist (1908—1965)

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A Tale of Two Hedge Funds

Last week, one of world’s best known currency hedge funds shut down, following a period of disappointing investment performance. At the same time, a rival currency fund was outperforming all of its peers to top the Bloomberg rankings. What can the contrasting fortunes of two of the world’s largest currency hedge funds tell us about the state of the FX market?

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The US Debt Ceiling Crisis

Assessing the likelihood and impact of a US default…

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Carney’s Positivity and the Resurgent Pound

The Bank of England is becoming increasingly upbeat about the UK’s economic prospects, and the pound has strengthened by almost 5% on a trade-weighted basis since August. Can sterling continue to reap the benefits of Carney’s positive tone…?

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Ben Bernanke’s Hand Grenades…

The Fed’s decision not to taper their quantitative easing programme last week was a game changer and a deliberate signal to the market that that QE retains an important place in the Fed’s monetary policy toolkit. All of the consequences of this shift in strategy are not yet clear, but it is not good news for the USD…

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Currency Volatility – Are markets nearing an inflection point?



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