news archive

The underwhelming US recovery continues to weigh down the USD…

The US is now into the 5th year of the slowest economic recovery in modern history. In the first four years of the recovery, we have yet to see a year-over-year economic growth rate in excess of 2.8% (which was achieved in 2010), and the average annual growth rate since 2010 has been a distinctly unimpressive 2.25%.

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Will the Emerging Market Crisis Endanger the Economic Recovery?

Perception changes quickly in the financial markets. It was not so long ago that emerging markets were being hailed as the saviours of the global economy, their vibrant, high-growth economies set to drag the sluggish, over-leveraged ‘advanced’ economies out of the post-crisis quagmire of economic stagnancy.

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Is the dominance of the USD as a reserve currency in question?

“Printing a reserve currency to pay for net imports is akin to owning an international ‘printing press’, the use of which causes net global monetary inflation and, by association, some degree of eventual, realised price inflation.”
Belgian economist Robert Triffin

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Sterling approaches a tipping point…

“For 10 years now the pound has been clearly overvalued… and is now some 12% above fair value. As with the overvaluations of the pound at the start of the 1980s and the 1990s, the exchange rate has proved a silent killer for British industry.”
Larry Elliot, ‘How the strong pound killed British industry’
The Guardian, October 2006

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Sterling’s Market Momentum

GBP’s strength continues to win over skeptics – but is the currency beginning to overshoot the underlying economic story?

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Examining the case for USD strength in 2014

One of the most prevalent themes amongst currency market forecasters looking ahead at 2014 seems to be the growing probability of a strong USD. We have been here before of course…

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2014 Currency Outlook

GBPUSD About twelve months ago, as we headed into 2014, we were very worried about the pound. To us, everything seemed stacked against the UK’s currency: large-scale money printing (the Bank of England had implemented the largest QE programme in […]

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Will the Fed Finally Blink?

“If I go there will be trouble, and if I stay it will be double
So come on let me know
This indecisions buggin’ me”

The Clash, 1981
“Should I Stay or Should I Go”

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Interest Rates: Low for the Long Run?

There is a growing expectation in the financial markets that interest rates will inevitably begin to move higher next year. We are not so sure…

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Why We Still Worry About Sterling…

Now that both the value of the pound, and investors’ expectations for UK interest rates, have been raised, the question becomes: what next? Will UK PLC’s momentum continue to drive sterling higher against its peers, or has the good news now been ‘priced in’, making the pound vulnerable to a correction?

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