news archive


From Austerity to Growth

What will Germany’s pending policy shift mean for the euro?



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Japan draws first blood in the currency wars…

Japanese GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the first quarter, supported by Prime Minister Abe’s aggressive combination of monetary and fiscal measures. But the most powerful weapon in his arsenal remains the one that doesn’t officially exist; currency devaluation. Will Japan’s successful use of this not-so-secret weapon prompt a new escalation in the global currency war?



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Are we entering the era of the USD?

The voices of the USD bulls continue to grow louder, made confident by a gradually improving domestic economy, and hints from Bernanke that the end of QE3 may be nigh. We take a closer look at the arguments underpinning this view, to try and ascertain both their credibility and their legitimacy…



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Why Monetary Policy Won’t Work…

From quantitative easing to negative interest rates, monetary policy holds centre stage in the fight to kick-start the global economy. Not only is this approach likely to fail, it will probably make the situation even more dangerous…



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GDP gives GBP a boost…

Last week’s better-than-expected UK GDP number boosted sterling almost as much as it did George Osborne’s spirits. However, the longer-term implications for the currency pair are likely to be less dramatic…



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So, where’s the inflation…?

One of the supposed mysteries of the post credit-crisis era is the lack of inflation, despite the unprecedented expansion of central bank balance sheets…



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Q1 FX Forecast Review

This week, we look at back at January’s core FX forecasts for 2013 to see what we got right and what we didn’t—and to check whether the rationale behind our FX views remains valid…



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Is the US economic recovery for real?

Last month, the US economy added the fewest number of jobs in almost a year. GDP growth is barely above zero, and the proportion of US companies issuing negative earnings guidance reached a seven year high in the first quarter of 2013. What does this mean for the prospects for a sustainable US recovery?



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Why Cyprus Does Matter…

“For the moment, anarchy in the global financial markets masquerades as an agent of national prosperity and personal freedom. It is a compelling disguise, underpinned by many clever arguments and supported by many persuasive advocates…but one day the mist will clear, exposing the true extent of past follies.”



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Putting Cyprus into Perspective

Three reasons why the Cypriot bail-out will not harm the euro’s prospects in the long term…



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