news archive


Carney’s mixed messages. The bottom line: no rate hike until next year



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Eurozone – increasing the downside risk

The recent ECB press conference has highlighted the increased downside risks for the Eurozone economy (however, not necessarily for the euro)…



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The USD Comeback…

Why we think that the recent USD momentum might continue….



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Hedging Renminbi Risk – End of the one way bet?



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The Big Mo: Sterling has the support of one of the most powerful (and inexplicable) forces in the financial markets: momentum. But are there signs that this energy may be starting to wane…?



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2014 Forecast Report Card

With a combination of the July 4th holiday and the world cup quarter finals ensuring that the currency markets experienced one their quietest weeks of a pretty quiet year last week, it seems an opportune time to review our 2014 currency forecasts, assessing what we got right, what we got wrong, and whether it is time to adjust our views….



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Why is the USD so weak?

We look at five reasons for the disappointing dollar…



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High oil prices, monetary policy and the currencies

The recent increase of oil prices and a threat of a deteriorating situation in Iraq, have spurred concerns over a further rally in Brent towards 150 USD/barrel. This week we will look at two things:     1) The relationship between […]



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GBPUSD Breaches 1.70…Where could we go from here?

At the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London last week, Mark Carney surprised the currency markets, using a boating analogy from his native Canada to compare the UK economy to a canoe facing a stretch of dangerous rapids.



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ECB stimulus, secular stagnation and the euro strength

Last week we witnessed the launch of an impressive easing package unveiled by the ECB intended to encourage money supply into the sluggish Eurozone economy. This week we will examine what impact it had on increasing concerns over secular stagnation in the Eurozone, how Europe’s current predicament compares to experience of Japan since the 1990’s, and what the implications might be for the currency markets.



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