news archive


Will the real currency manipulator please stand up?

Last week’s US Treasury Report on international trade singled out Germany for criticism, based on its strong export performance and positive trade balance. But in an environment where quantitative easing has become a standard economic policy tool, it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify who is cheating who…



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The Sensible Central Banker

The governor of the Bank of Canada does not have the same profile as his counterparts at the Fed or the Bank of England. However, his approach to central banking offers lessons that his colleagues would do well to emulate…



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Why the US Debt Ceiling Resolution is both dollar Positive and dollar Negative…

“Anyone who isn’t confused doesn’t really understand the situation”
Edward R Murrow
American Journalist (1908—1965)



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A Tale of Two Hedge Funds

Last week, one of world’s best known currency hedge funds shut down, following a period of disappointing investment performance. At the same time, a rival currency fund was outperforming all of its peers to top the Bloomberg rankings. What can the contrasting fortunes of two of the world’s largest currency hedge funds tell us about the state of the FX market?



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The US Debt Ceiling Crisis

Assessing the likelihood and impact of a US default…



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Carney’s Positivity and the Resurgent Pound

The Bank of England is becoming increasingly upbeat about the UK’s economic prospects, and the pound has strengthened by almost 5% on a trade-weighted basis since August. Can sterling continue to reap the benefits of Carney’s positive tone…?



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Ben Bernanke’s Hand Grenades…

The Fed’s decision not to taper their quantitative easing programme last week was a game changer and a deliberate signal to the market that that QE retains an important place in the Fed’s monetary policy toolkit. All of the consequences of this shift in strategy are not yet clear, but it is not good news for the USD…



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Emerging markets and the health of the global economy

First we had sub-prime debt. Then we had the euro zone. Do emerging markets represent the next phase of the global financial crisis?



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Currency Volatility – Are the markets nearing an inflection point?

Trying to predict precisely when the next sustained bout of currency market volatility will occur is a fool’s errand.  Financial markets are not subject to natural laws which allow the observer to make reliable predictions based on observations about their […]



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Q2 FX Forecast Review

This week, we look back at our forecasting record over the last three months to see what we got right and what we didn’t – and to check whether the rationale behind our FX views remains valid…



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Corporate Hedger’s Guide to Basel III

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Currency Volatility – Are markets nearing an inflection point?

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“Validus designed an innovative and practical hedging strategy to address our underlying FX risk in the context of very distinct and diverse sources of competition. We are delighted with the outcome and impressed with their on-going response to the changing business and market dynamics”.

 

Paul Stobbs, Managing Director, Attraction World

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James Markham, Partner – Portfolio Management, Graphite Capital LLP

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Mark Bettle, Director, J.D. Irving Ltd.

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 “Validus developed a tailored hedging solution to mitigate the risks from our unique combination of existing supplier agreements. The implementation and management of this rolling hedging programme with our FX service providers has been expertly and efficiently handled”.  

 

Mark Goldby, Finance Director, SMS Electronics Ltd.

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“Validus worked with us to develop a comprehensive commodity risk management programme – their analysis was both insightful and actionable.   We particularly value their independence, and they continue to work alongside our internal team to ensure our commodity price risks are managed effectively”


Gerry Gray, Finance Director, Strix Ltd.


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“Validus comes up with risk management solutions that are innovative and comprehensive but practical to implement, that is their strength compared to other consulting companies we have worked with in the past.  Validus provided valuable insights into how FX, interest rate and commodity risks impact our organisation, and provide actionable recommendations and solutions.”

 

Andrew Ayres, Finance Director, U-POL Ltd.

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