news archive

Q1 Review – Equity market volatility fails to infect FX markets (for now)

  The first quarter of 2018 was a shaky one for equity markets, and the start of the second quarter has been even more concerning, as highlighted in the above chart.  The S&P 500 is now down by more than […]

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UK’s MPC set to hike in May, but is the market pricing in enough?

Last week the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left rates on hold at 0.5% as expected by the market, but the Minutes that were released showed a central bank very clearly intending to hike at the next meeting […]

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Interest rate differentials continue to widen as Fed set to hike

This week, the focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC rate announcement where the Fed are widely expected to raise rates by 25bps, taking the target range to 1.50 – 1.75%. The futures market is suggesting that a hike is a foregone […]

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ECB policy: Less dovish does not mean hawkish

Last week, Mario Draghi announced that the ECB would drop the commitment to increase its bond-buying programme should “the outlook become less favourable” – a pledge dating from December 2016 when the ECB first began to cut its bond-buying programme.   […]

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Cracks in the Foundation

It is said that a building is only as strong as its foundation.  If we imagine a country’s economic output as a building, the foundation it would be built upon is that country’s consumer.  Consumer spending makes up over 50% […]

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Is the panic over?

Less than three weeks ago, the VIX index (the Chicago Board Options Exchanged S&P 500 Volatility Index – also known as the Fear Index) spiked to its highest level since August 2015 amid concerns of rising bond yields and expectations […]

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Political Risk (Quietly) Stalks the Euro

Financial markets were obsessed with European political risk at the beginning of 2017.  As the euro approached parity with the US dollar, the implications of a potential victory for Marine Le Pen in France, or for her fellow euro-sceptic Geert […]

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When will the Bank of England hike?

Last week saw sterling endure a rollercoaster week, rallying to a high of $1.4050 on Thursday before tumbling back to a low of $1.3760 on Friday. Given the recent volatility in financial markets (including equities, rates and commodities) three cents […]

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Is risk appetite waning?

We look at three charts which show that the long period of calm in the financial markets may be under threat.    Tranquillity was the defining feature of financial markets in 2017.  Equity markets were buoyant, fixed income markets began […]

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Trade Trumped: A War on the Horizon?

Last week at the Davos conference, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated:  “Trade wars are fought every single day… So a trade war has been in place for quite a little while, the difference is the U.S. troops are now […]

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