news archive


The Volatility Spring

Seldom have there been as many ‘known unknowns’ as we have today. To wit, the US dropping bombs on Syria and what this may mean for stability in the Middle East and therefore oil prices, Brexit causing uncertainty for both […]



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Trump Trade—What’s Next?

A common question asked by our readership is whether the rally we’ve seen in the dollar since early 2016 is beginning to run out of steam, or if the ‘divergence trade’, which has been driving the USD higher since 2014, […]



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Article 50 And GBP – Time To ‘Sell The Fact’?

‘We decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens.  If no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don’t understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning […]



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What Next for the Dollar?

The Fed’s decision to raise rates by 25bp last week was not a surprise; expectations for a hike increased to 94% in the week or two prior to the decision (as we referenced in the Big Picture published on 6th […]



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Are the high costs of hedging for euro investors coming to a turning point?

As far as hedging decisions are concerned, the last few months haven’t been particularly easy for euro investors. Implied hedging costs for a currency are defined (partially or totally, depending on the instrument and market conditions) by the carry, (the […]



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Does a flattening yield curve signal pain for the dollar?

The latest news from the FOMC indicates a March hike of the Fed’s policy rate would “likely be appropriate” so long as “…employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with [their] expectations”. This news has increased the market […]



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Protectionism? What’s the big deal?

It’s hard to open a newspaper today and not find an article about a country imposing, or considering imposing, protectionist policies in order to stimulate domestic growth and ‘take back control of their country’.  The fear seems to be that […]



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Is Carney going to be right after all?

Most economists were very pessimistic about the prospects for the UK following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union on 23rd June last year – none more so than Mark Carney and his team at the Bank of England who […]



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Is it expensive to hedge using Options?

The past few months have seen political turmoil on several fronts causing sharp moves in currency markets.  Brexit in the UK drove the value of sterling to a 30 year low against the dollar, the election of Donald Trump in […]



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Is Trump right to cry foul on FX Manipulation?

“Germany…continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the US with an implicit Deutsche Mark that is grossly undervalued.” Peter Navarro Head of the National Trade Council, Trump Trade Advisor January 2017   “The euro exchange rate […]



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