news archive


Yellen indicates that another hike is coming

  Last week’s US Retail Sales and CPI data fell short of market expectations, which in turn saw the probability of a rate hike before year end decline from 78% to 73%. Fed Governor Janet Yellen has said repeatedly that […]



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The folly of volatility suppression: Why Catalonia is a warning for Europe

Complex systems that have artificially supressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile…although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite. Nassim Nicholas Taleb and […]



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What can we expect from the Conservative Party Conference this week?

Last week’s Labour party conference couldn’t have gone much better for Jeremy Corbyn. After two fractious years of infighting and chaos, the party presented itself as more united. Tom Watson and Sadiq Khan, two of Corbyn’s biggest critics in the […]



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Germany Sees Shift Towards Populism

The election results are in and Germany has chosen Angela Merkel to lead the country for a fourth consecutive term.  While on the surface it may seem like a case of ‘same old, same old’ in Europe’s largest economy, but […]



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Sterling Bounces Back

Sterling rallied hard last week, following a clear hawkish shift by the Bank of England on Thursday.  GBPUSD hit a post Brexit high above 1.36, and GBPEUR pushed into the mid-teens, dampening the talk of GBPEUR parity that had begun […]



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Will the hype around the ECB ever amount to tighter policy?

 In last Monday’s report, we debated whether the recent bull run in the euro can continue. At the ECB meeting on Thursday, Draghi justified our belief that it may struggle with the committee set to maintain a very cautious approach […]



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EUR: Can the Bull Run Continue?

There are only two exogenous factors…that can realistically explain the resilience of (Europe’s) recovery: the collapse in oil prices in 2014-15 and our monetary policy.   Mario Draghi, ECB President April 2017     When we made the decision to […]



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Jackson Hole’s focus on Global Growth and less on Monetary Policy

This past weekend saw the annual central bank conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The Economic Policy Symposium is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world, bringing together economists, financial markets participants, academics, and central bankers from around […]



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Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates?

Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates? When the Fed started to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates back in early 2015, the dollar rallied aggressively against all its major […]



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What if there is a crisis?

Currencies trade very differently in a crisis.  We explore what could happen to our FX market outlook if we experience a financial crisis in the next twelve months.      The probability of a financial market crisis erupting in the next […]



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