news archive

UK economy feels more pain

This morning’s UK manufacturing PMI survey printed a reading of 52.8 for August, its lowest level in 25 months. Before we get too carried away with ramping up project fear, it should be noted that the survey shows the sector […]

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Central Banking in a Changing World

This weekend was the annual meeting of Central Bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Usually this is a high profile event with the world’s most important banking chiefs all giving speeches, providing a great insight for markets of what the future […]

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The odds and impact of a ‘Hard Brexit’

On Friday, Denmark’s finance minister, Kristian Jensen, placed the odds of the UK leaving the EU without an agreement at 50 / 50.  Earlier this month the British International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, was even more pessimistic, estimating the chances […]

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Turkey gets an early roasting

The currency markets closed last week on the verge of panic. For anyone with an exposure to the Turkish Lira, that is probably the understatement of the century given that the currency fell 26% against the dollar last week (although […]

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The MPC has hiked. What next for interest rates?

Last Thursday saw the Bank of England vote unanimously 9-0 in favour of raising the base rate to 0.75%; only the second rate rise for more than a decade and the first time the rate has been above 0.50% since […]

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Can Trump stop the dollar?

China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day – taking away our big competitive edge. As […]

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Is a BoE rate hike next month a done deal?

At the beginning of April, the markets were pricing a 0.25% rate rise in May as a near certainty. However, the MPC voted 7-2 in favour of keeping the bank rate at 0.5% whilst also electing to keep the bank’s […]

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Politics & the Pound: With Theresa May’s leadership under pressure, what are the potential outcomes for the Great British Pound?

The Political Pressure Mounts   Theresa May’s leadership has come under tremendous pressure since she outlined her desire for a softer Brexit just over a week ago.  Since then there have been a series of high profile resignations from the […]

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Is it time to hit the panic button yet?

One of the biggest points of contention in financial circles these days is the interpretation of the flattening yield curve. With rising short-term interest rates and a low term premium, the spread between yields on the short and long end […]

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Raise rates or unwind QE or both?

In last week’s report, we discussed the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates in August and concluded that it is now a high probability event following the publication of a relatively hawkish set of minutes from the […]

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