news archive

FX Volatility: Gone but not forgotten…

FX volatility has been remarkably compressed during the second half of 2017; however there are a number of signs that these placid conditions may be about to change…   Twas the night before Christmas And all through the house Not […]

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Sterling Continues to Dance to the Brexit Beat

The last 7 days have been critical in the process of Brexit negotiations, as agreement on the three key ‘divorce issues’ has progressed sufficiently for all parties to agree to continue to the next phase of the negotiations.  However, as […]

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German Politics and the Euro

The euro’s rally is looking stretched – will Germany’s uncertain political outlook be the catalyst for a reversal?     The stability of the euro is built upon a foundation of German political stability.  Membership of the single currency includes […]

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Tax Reform and the Federal Reserve

One of the cornerstones of a functioning Central Bank is that it remains independent from the government, and therefore shielded from short-term political influence whilst pursuing their mandate of ensuring price stability.  While the Federal Reserve is independent of Trump’s […]

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Sterling steady despite renewed uncertainty

When we left our desks on Friday, sterling was as strong as it had been all week, helped by reports of progress on Brexit negotiations. Both David Davis and Michel Barnier agreed that they would work to the goal of […]

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UK Interest Rates: A dovish hike?

  All members agree that any future increases in Bank Rate would be expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.Bank of England Monetary Policy SummaryNovember 2nd 2017   Given our outlook currently, we anticipate we […]

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America’s Next Great Federal Reserve Chair. No, it’s not the latest reality TV show (or is it?)

Donald Trump is expected to name the next Federal Reserve Chair in the coming days, and the most recent whispers out of Washington have Jerome Powell as the most likely nomination for the position.    Whilst the past four presidents […]

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Is a November rate hike really nailed on?

I’ve lost count of the number of times that a UK rate hike has been discussed since the Bank of England slashed rates to 0.5% in March 2009 in an attempt to stave off the Great Financial Crisis. Each time […]

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Yellen indicates that another hike is coming

  Last week’s US Retail Sales and CPI data fell short of market expectations, which in turn saw the probability of a rate hike before year end decline from 78% to 73%. Fed Governor Janet Yellen has said repeatedly that […]

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The folly of volatility suppression: Why Catalonia is a warning for Europe

Complex systems that have artificially supressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile…although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite. Nassim Nicholas Taleb and […]

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