news archive

EUR: Can the Bull Run Continue?

There are only two exogenous factors…that can realistically explain the resilience of (Europe’s) recovery: the collapse in oil prices in 2014-15 and our monetary policy.   Mario Draghi, ECB President April 2017     When we made the decision to […]

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Jackson Hole’s focus on Global Growth and less on Monetary Policy

This past weekend saw the annual central bank conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The Economic Policy Symposium is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world, bringing together economists, financial markets participants, academics, and central bankers from around […]

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Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates?

Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates? When the Fed started to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates back in early 2015, the dollar rallied aggressively against all its major […]

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What if there is a crisis?

Currencies trade very differently in a crisis.  We explore what could happen to our FX market outlook if we experience a financial crisis in the next twelve months.      The probability of a financial market crisis erupting in the next […]

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Will Trump Survive To The End Of His First Term In Office?

As special counsel Robert Mueller impaneled a grand jury in the Justice Department’s investigation into Russian election interference, several Republican senators have started moving away from the President.  This has led to increasing speculation as to whether this is a […]

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How have expectations of monetary policy change impacted hedging costs?

Following last week’s FOMC meeting, the committee elected to keep the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 1-1.25%. The outcome was widely expected and hence there was no significant change in the markets. The accompanying statement included a number of […]

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The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join?

The Fed has been hosting the tightening party since December 2015, but has been very lonely.  A couple of weeks ago, Stephen Poloz and the Bank of Canada showed up with their own 25bp hike.  Other central banks seem to […]

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What does faster growth mean for currencies?

Markets have welcomed the news overnight that China’s economy grew 6.9% on an annualised basis during the second quarter. Although Japanese markets were closed, the Hang Seng finished the session +0.31% and commodities (primarily zinc and iron ore) posted solid […]

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Will the central banks really risk tightening monetary policy?

Over the last couple of weeks, the market has switched its attention from political uncertainty across the globe to the prospect of tighter monetary policy from some of the World’s major central banks. Policy makers from the Federal Reserve, Bank […]

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Central Bank Comments Change the Landscape

Last week may prove to be the point at which we look back and pinpoint where Central Banks around the world decided the time for zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) must end (excluding the US who have already moved away […]

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FX Hedging:

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An Integrated Approach


The Corporate Use of Credit Derivatives:

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Currency Volatility – Are markets nearing an inflection point?



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