news archive

Why is the USD so weak?

We look at five reasons for the disappointing dollar…

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High oil prices, monetary policy and the currencies

The recent increase of oil prices and a threat of a deteriorating situation in Iraq, have spurred concerns over a further rally in Brent towards 150 USD/barrel. This week we will look at two things:     1) The relationship between […]

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GBPUSD Breaches 1.70…Where could we go from here?

At the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London last week, Mark Carney surprised the currency markets, using a boating analogy from his native Canada to compare the UK economy to a canoe facing a stretch of dangerous rapids.

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ECB stimulus, secular stagnation and the euro strength

Last week we witnessed the launch of an impressive easing package unveiled by the ECB intended to encourage money supply into the sluggish Eurozone economy. This week we will examine what impact it had on increasing concerns over secular stagnation in the Eurozone, how Europe’s current predicament compares to experience of Japan since the 1990’s, and what the implications might be for the currency markets.

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Is there still a case for strong dollar in 2014?

At the beginning of this year we examined the case for dollar strength (see here), discussing that high GDP growth in the US economy in 2014 does not have an immediate spill over effect into the exchange rate (however, it […]

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The Paradox of Carry

Will rising interest rates blow up the carry trade?

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Return of volatility…

Talk about (a lack of) currency volatility has been all over the financial news in recent weeks as volatility amongst the major currencies fell to its lowest levels since 2007 (see chart below). Following the last week’s discussion about sterling’s ride on low volatility, this week we look at the wider implications of the low volatility environment on currency markets.

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Has Cable Finally Cracked?

Last week’s push in GBPUSD towards the psychological 1.70 level failed, as sterling trailed the euro lower, following dovish statements from the ECB. Does this represent the end of GBPUSD’s impressive year-long rally? A statistical perspective on what is driving GBPUSD casts some doubt on this notion…

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2007 Redux: Examining the risk of another global financial crisis…

Canadian economist William White is not a household name like Mark Carney, Mario Draghi or Ben Bernanke, however he probably should be.  White, the former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), began his career at the Bank […]

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Is ‘long GBP’ the new ‘short EUR’?

As an increasing number of market commentators switch their GBP forecasts from bearish to bullish, we look back and explain why the consensus view isn’t always the best indicator of what is likely to happen in the markets.

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