news archive

Can you be bullish on the USD and believe that US interest rates won’t rise in 2015?

Each Thursday afternoon at Validus we have a video conference with analysts from our two offices (Eton and Toronto) to review our current market outlook and currency forecasts.  Last week, I asked them to consider the above question, and provide […]

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Why we care about current account

Let’s close our eyes and imagine we are back in 2006, right before the subprime mortgage crisis. A lot of payday loan companies and banks would pre-approve enormous loans to people who barely made ends meet. In fact, several investigations[1] […]

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(When) will interest rates rise?

Despite some talk of raising rates sooner than anticipated, the markets know by now to ignore this type of conjecture. In each of the instances below the Fed said one thing only to act in another manner when push came […]

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Has the dollar reached a turning point?

Regular readers will be all too well aware that we have been questioning the market’s expectations on the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate hike in recent months. This is looking increasingly justified with futures markets now pricing in […]

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The UK Election and Sterling – Do the markets care who wins?

On Thursday, the British electorate go to the polls in one of the most uncertain elections in recent history (by the way, for those readers eligible to vote in the UK but still undecided, there is an app for that…), […]

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Has the USD Peaked?

In recent weeks, the USD uptrend has faltered.  EURUSD’s seemingly relentless push to parity has stalled, GBPUSD has pushed back above the psychological 1.50 level, and USDCAD appears to have failed in its rally towards 1.30.  As such, it is […]

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Grexit: Challenges and Issues

Following the launch of the ECB’s QE programme in March, we have seen the euro weakening against its major peers. Since then, as economic sentiment has started to improve, the euro has resisted the downward pressure and remained above parity […]

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Dollar holds firm despite weaker than expected payrolls

The Easter mood was dampened by the worse than expected US jobs data. Although the headline unemployment figure remained in line with expectations of 5.5%, non-farm payrolls fell significantly short of expectations coming in at 126k (previous 295k, expected 248k). […]

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Is the euro primed for another leg lower?

After reaching a 12 year low at 1.0458 earlier this month, EUR/USD bounced back to test briefly above 1.10 last week, alleviating some of the downward pressure in the short term at least. However, having failed to sustain a move […]

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FOMC: Attempt to suppress volatility while hinting at delay in rate hike

Looking at the FX markets today, with the dollar more or less unchanged, the FOMC meeting last week wasn’t as big of a big game changer at it may have appeared at first glance. Market expectations were partially fulfilled: the […]

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FX Hedging:

10 Common Pitfalls


Commodity & FX Risk:

An Integrated Approach


The Corporate Use of Credit Derivatives:

Where Next?


Corporate Hedger’s Guide to Basel III


Currency Volatility – Are markets nearing an inflection point?



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James Markham, Partner – Portfolio Management, Graphite Capital LLP


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Mark Bettle, Director, J.D. Irving Ltd.


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Mark Goldby, Finance Director, SMS Electronics Ltd.


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Gerry Gray, Finance Director, Strix Ltd.


FX, Commodity & Interest Rate Risk


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Andrew Ayres, Finance Director, U-POL Ltd.

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