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Divergences, convergences and GBPEUR

Divergence has become a frequently discussed topic in the FX markets in 2014. Whether we talk about the diverging recovery among the EU countries, global monetary policy or diverging current account balances in the UK and the EU. This report outlines three key divergences that are likely reshape the FX landscape and, in our view could push sterling lower in the next year.

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Scotland and the Pound

As the Scottish referendum on independence draws nearer, the near term outlook for the pound remains cloudy. With the polls tightening, and considering the financial market’s well known fear of the unknown, the risk of a serious devaluation in the pound this week cannot be ignored.

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Has the euro weakened enough?

“Euro bonds are precisely the wrong answer. They lead us into a debt union, not a stability union”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, 2011

“I think France has not made it clear enough to our German friends how important it is to introduce euro bonds as a tool against speculation”

French Prime Minister Francois Hollande, 2012

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Why Draghi’s Jackson Hole Speech Means a Weaker Euro…

In 2012, Mario Draghi uttered three words which dramatically changed the trajectory of the euro.  With the single currency in free fall (trading at about 1.20 against the dollar), Draghi announced he would do “whatever it takes” to save the […]

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Carney’s mixed messages. The bottom line: no rate hike until next year

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Eurozone – increasing the downside risk

The recent ECB press conference has highlighted the increased downside risks for the Eurozone economy (however, not necessarily for the euro)…

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The USD Comeback…

Why we think that the recent USD momentum might continue….

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Hedging Renminbi Risk – End of the one way bet?

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The Big Mo: Sterling has the support of one of the most powerful (and inexplicable) forces in the financial markets: momentum. But are there signs that this energy may be starting to wane…?

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2014 Forecast Report Card

With a combination of the July 4th holiday and the world cup quarter finals ensuring that the currency markets experienced one their quietest weeks of a pretty quiet year last week, it seems an opportune time to review our 2014 currency forecasts, assessing what we got right, what we got wrong, and whether it is time to adjust our views….

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