news archive

Draghi’s half-hearted QE

Political groups within the EU/ECB remain disconnected, which makes Draghi send mixed signals to the market: yes to more stimulus (now), but no to more stimulus (later). Yet without a plausible pledge to deliver as much easing as required by […]

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The ECB Prepares to go Lower

As the ECB contemplates pushing interest rates further into negative territory, the dangers of this untested strategy are growing…   I mean, this is what it’s come to, right? Where smirking Ph.Ds who have never spent a day of their […]

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Negative Interest Rates and Currencies     If you deposit €1million with the European Central Bank (ECB) today, you will get back €999,992 tomorrow.  In other words, you must pay the central bankers in Frankfurt €8 for the pleasure of holding on to your […]

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Synonym for Brexit is uncertainty, not collapse

Last week PM David Cameron announced 23rd of June as the date of in-out EU referendum. While Cameron endorsed the “in” vote, Boris Johnson supported the “out” campaign. The divide in political parties into moderate and radical anti-establishment populists has […]

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Markets versus Economists

Two very different perspectives on UK interest rates…   “Markets understood the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve” Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers, Financial Times 2/15/2016   Will the next move for UK interest rates […]

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Surprisingly, markets need more policy divergence

The investors have been greatly concerned about the issue of ‘monetary divergence’: the fact that the ECB is re-launching a monetary stimulus program, while the Fed is in the beginning of the tightening cycle. Normally, a loose monetary policy (e.g. […]

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A case for a more dovish Fed. More dovish than you have just imagined

  Last week the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was broadly expected. Current market expectations remain slightly skewed to higher rates by the end of the year, which is consistent with all the previous messages about ‘gradual policy normalisation.’ […]

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Fed to adopt cautious stance on policy

Looking forward at the week ahead, Wednesday’s Fed meeting jumps out as a key focal point for the currency markets. Following the decision to hike rates by 25 basis points in December, the consensus forecast [unsurprisingly] is for the FOMC […]

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What kind of risk-off is this?

  Last week, risk-off sentiment kicked in the markets: treasuries yields fell, stock markets went through significant turbulence, oil hit new lows, and gold started gaining. On the currency front, the USD strengthened against most currencies with the exception of […]

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2016 Currency Outlook

  “The laws of economics will never be repealed, but for now they have been suspended and may be for some time…”   Final Investor newsletter for the Nevsky Fund January 2016   The Nevsky Fund is a USD 1.5 […]

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