news archive


Carney hints at rate rises despite expectations of deflation…

“The most likely next move in monetary policy is an increase in interest rates…” Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, February 12 2015   “Relative to the recent past, the economic outlook is much improved…while there is always uncertainty about […]



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US Employment Report: How strong is the bullish dollar case?

Over the past six months we have experienced one of the biggest US dollar rallies in recent history, where the USD reached highest level since the dot-com bubble on a trade-weighted basis. The outlook for 2015, with a diverging monetary […]



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Decompressing Volatility in the FX Markets

Over the past months the “reign” of the US dollar has become increasingly prominent as the wedge between the economic outlook and monetary policy of the US and the rest of the world is driven deeper. Although there was no […]



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ECB: Doing “whatever it takes” in practice…

Last Thursday Mario Draghi the Chairman of the ECB announced a long awaited quantitative easing programme in the Eurozone. Speculatively, in order to test the market reaction and prepare investors the ECB leaked the board proposal for QE amounting to […]



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Three Takeaways from the Swiss Surprise

  I happened to be standing on an FX trading floor in the City of London on Thursday morning, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shocked the financial markets, removing the euro-franc floor and pushing Swiss interest rates further into […]



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2015 Currency Outlook

EURUSD – ‘Great Meta-Expectations’   “Mass psychology really is the key to determine price action, at the end of the day.” Anonymous Foreign Exchange Trader Quoted in the “The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market” Thomas Oberlechner, 2004   EURUSD […]



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Five Trends to Watch in 2015

  Divergence   To diverge (definition):   1. To move, lie or extend in different directions from a common point; branch off. 2. To turn aside or deviate, as from a path, practice, or plan.     ‘Divergence’ has become […]



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A Look Back at 2014…

“The bulls are like the giraffe, which is scared by nothing or like the magician…who in his mirror made the ladies appear much more beautiful than they are in reality.  They love everything; they praise everything; they exaggerate everything.   […]



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ECB Monetary Policy Outlook in 2015

The Chairman of the ECB Mario Draghi’s continuous dovish sentiment and strategy to “talk down the euro” is running out of steam, knowing that there will come the time when he will have to act in order to convince the […]



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Falling Oil Prices and Currency Movements – Cause or Effect?

The key to understanding the implications of the falling oil price on financial markets is to figure out whether low energy prices can stimulate improved economic productivity, or whether they simply reflect a sluggish picture of global economic growth…   […]



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