news archive

Markets versus Economists

Two very different perspectives on UK interest rates…   “Markets understood the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve” Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers, Financial Times 2/15/2016   Will the next move for UK interest rates […]

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Surprisingly, markets need more policy divergence

The investors have been greatly concerned about the issue of ‘monetary divergence’: the fact that the ECB is re-launching a monetary stimulus program, while the Fed is in the beginning of the tightening cycle. Normally, a loose monetary policy (e.g. […]

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A case for a more dovish Fed. More dovish than you have just imagined

  Last week the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was broadly expected. Current market expectations remain slightly skewed to higher rates by the end of the year, which is consistent with all the previous messages about ‘gradual policy normalisation.’ […]

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Fed to adopt cautious stance on policy

Looking forward at the week ahead, Wednesday’s Fed meeting jumps out as a key focal point for the currency markets. Following the decision to hike rates by 25 basis points in December, the consensus forecast [unsurprisingly] is for the FOMC […]

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What kind of risk-off is this?

  Last week, risk-off sentiment kicked in the markets: treasuries yields fell, stock markets went through significant turbulence, oil hit new lows, and gold started gaining. On the currency front, the USD strengthened against most currencies with the exception of […]

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2016 Currency Outlook

  “The laws of economics will never be repealed, but for now they have been suspended and may be for some time…”   Final Investor newsletter for the Nevsky Fund January 2016   The Nevsky Fund is a USD 1.5 […]

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A look back at 2015…

One year ago we identified five trends (link) which we thought would become increasingly important over the next twelve months:   Divergence in global monetary policy A continuation of USD strength The return of market volatility A continued focus on […]

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A week into the Fed hike

Last week the US Fed delivered the first rate hike in 8 years, increasing the policy rate from 25 to 50 basis points. With the current data showing improvements in employment, but little progress with inflation and wages, the hike […]

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December FOMC Meeting Preview

After months, if not years of deliberation, the Fed is widely expected to begin raising rates when they meet on Wednesday this week. Two weeks ago, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, gave the signal that the conditions set out by the […]

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A case study on expectation management

Last week brought two major events. On Wednesday, Yellen ‘laid ground for an interest rate rise’, and that did not surprise anyone.  On Thursday, Draghi unveiled QE plans, which turned to be slightly different from expectations.   The first event […]

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