news archive


Central Bank Zugzwang

  “I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy.” Janet Yellen Federal Reserve Chair July 10, 2015   […]



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Politics 1: Economics 0

The Greek crisis edges towards a ‘resolution’ as geopolitics trumps economic reality…     “The German finance minister seriously wants to push Greece out of the euro; the German chancellor, on the other hand, is very anxious to find a […]



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Greek people can stay irrational longer than Greece can stay solvent

Despite  80% of Greeks wishing to stay in Eurozone, 61% voted against the bailout package. Are Greek people being irrational, or should we just discard the polls completely after Italy in 2013 and Britain in 2015[2]? At closer inspection, there […]



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Whatever it Takes

The newspaper headlines over the weekend have left many with the impression that a Grexit is imminent. Indeed, after all the ‘hints’ in recent weeks: the IMF saying that a Grexit is a possibility (28 May), Cameron preparing plans for […]



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The (FX) Theory of Relativity

“Despite the soft first quarter, the fundamentals underlying household spending appear favorable and consumer sentiment remains solid. Looking ahead, the Committee still expects a moderate pace of GDP growth, with continuing job gains and lower energy prices supporting household spending.” […]



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Another Greek Tragedy?

  Photograph taken by Validus account executive Andriana Goudis at a Greek restaurant in Bristol (UK)   “Over two decades we destroyed our production capacity and industry.  In the first decade of this century, after entry into the EMU, we […]



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Will the Fed raise rates this year?

“The soundness of a central bank varies inversely with the breadth of its mandate.  The more it’s expected to do, the longer the odds against success.  The Fed’s mandate is all-encompassing.  Roughly speaking, it is expected to deliver the earth […]



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Can you be bullish on the USD and believe that US interest rates won’t rise in 2015?

Each Thursday afternoon at Validus we have a video conference with analysts from our two offices (Eton and Toronto) to review our current market outlook and currency forecasts.  Last week, I asked them to consider the above question, and provide […]



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Why we care about current account

Let’s close our eyes and imagine we are back in 2006, right before the subprime mortgage crisis. A lot of payday loan companies and banks would pre-approve enormous loans to people who barely made ends meet. In fact, several investigations[1] […]



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(When) will interest rates rise?

Despite some talk of raising rates sooner than anticipated, the markets know by now to ignore this type of conjecture. In each of the instances below the Fed said one thing only to act in another manner when push came […]



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