news archive


Yellen Fuels Further Uncertainty

After the Fed elected to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its meeting earlier this month, there was a general perception that the committee was taking a cautious stance in the wake of the problems in China. Nonetheless, the consensus […]



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Fed Maintains Cautious Approach to Monetary Policy

In the build-up to last week’s FOMC meeting, markets had become increasingly sceptical about whether the committee will follow through on its threat to begin tightening policy. Hence, despite the vote of no change, we shouldn’t be too surprised that […]



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The Fed’s Dilemma

If there is one thing that is certain about the outcome of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting it is that it is highly uncertain, with just under half of US economists predicting that rates will rise this week (chart 1), […]



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Mario Draghi: Talking the talk…

The euro is like a bumblebee. This is a mystery of nature because it shouldn’t fly but instead it does…   Mario DraghiECB PresidentJuly 2012   In July 2012, European capital markets were in chaos. Ten year sovereign bond yields […]



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Volatility Begets Volatility

    Large changes tend to be followed by large changes, of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes…   Benoit MandelbrotThe Variation of Certain Speculative PricesThe Journal of Business, 1963   You could be […]



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Beware the Ides of August…

The month of August has been a dangerous month for financial markets since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. August 2007 marked the start of the ‘Credit Crunch’, as BNP Paribas suspended three investment funds, citing a ‘complete evaporation […]



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A Note on China…and the Dollar

    A new billboard in Bangkok advertises the growing importance of the Chinese currency for international financial markets…   By: Kevin Lester   China dominated the foreign exchange market last week, when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) devalued […]



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Sterling and UK Interest Rates: A fragile equilibrium

             Let’s go back to July, 2007.  In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken the 14,000 level for the first time, setting a new record high.  Here in London, the FTSE […]



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To Fix or Not to Fix

With ‘Super Thursday’ looming in the UK, and a possible US rate hike being mooted for next month,  we look at whether now is a good time to for companies to consider protecting themselves from rising interest rates. The answer […]



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A closer look at our GBPEUR forecast.

  Of the 79 contributors to the Bloomberg FX poll, Validus Risk Management’s GBPEUR forecast (1.25 by the end of Q1 2016) is the most bearish.  In second place, for those who may be interested, is Bayerische Landesbank in Munich, […]



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