news archive

Is Carney going to be right after all?

Most economists were very pessimistic about the prospects for the UK following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union on 23rd June last year – none more so than Mark Carney and his team at the Bank of England who […]

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Is it expensive to hedge using Options?

The past few months have seen political turmoil on several fronts causing sharp moves in currency markets.  Brexit in the UK drove the value of sterling to a 30 year low against the dollar, the election of Donald Trump in […]

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Is Trump right to cry foul on FX Manipulation?

“Germany…continues to exploit other countries in the EU as well as the US with an implicit Deutsche Mark that is grossly undervalued.” Peter Navarro Head of the National Trade Council, Trump Trade Advisor January 2017   “The euro exchange rate […]

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Is the Single Market overrated?

Over the last two weeks, Sterling has experienced its biggest rally against the dollar since 2008, rising 5.7% over the course of ten days, followed by a 1.3% fall to the current 1.2540 level. This appreciation was driven by the […]

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Is the tide beginning to turn for EUR/USD?

Over the past three months, our strongest conviction in the currency markets has been that the euro would remain under pressure going into 2017. The rationale was twofold:       1. Widening Interest Rate Differentials – ECB was widely […]

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China Currency Basket: Little Red Riding Hood, or the Big Bad Wolf?

China rung in the new year by adjusting the weightings in their currency basket, and adding an additional 11 currencies into the mix.  The numbers of currencies in the basket has risen from 13 to 24.  The biggest impacts from […]

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What can we expect from 2017?

As promised in last week’s report, this week we look ahead and discuss the major themes likely to impact currency markets for the year ahead. A new US President, a rapidly changing political landscape in Europe and diverging monetary policy […]

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A look back at 2016

Twelve months ago, the UK referendum on EU membership was a big focal point, but a date hadn’t even been called, the probability of a Trump presidency was so small that is was simply written off as a publicity stunt […]

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The Fed’s Christmas gift

Last Wednesday The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp.  Considering this was priced into the market with 100% certainty, nobody was surprised by the move.  However, what did move markets was the hawkish tone from Fed chair Janet […]

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Draghi Does it Again

Demonstrating his great ability to reveal as little as possible about the ECB’s plans to the market (see our October article on this here), Draghi has done it again. We all know that quantitative easing can’t last forever and that […]

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