news archive

The Tax of Ultra-Low Interest Rates

We need some rethinking of the conduct of monetary policy. We have to wonder whether the current regime of monetary policy has a bias toward the creation of too much debt…it may lead to excess debt creation by giving the […]

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Will the Fed hike before the election?

Last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls showed the US economy added the fewest number of jobs in April since September last year. Headline payrolls increased by 160,000 in April compared to a consensus forecast of 200,000 although the unemployment rate remained steady […]

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Roller coaster week for the US dollar

Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and issued a largely neutral statement, as was broadly expected. Nevertheless, the US dollar plunged, losing about 2% of its value against the EUR and 1% against the pound in only three […]

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Why the Fed might raise rates (in June)…

It is pretty much a nailed on certainty that the Fed won’t raise US interest rates at its meeting this week.  The futures market is pricing in a 2% chance of a rate hike, and the Fed themselves have sent […]

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Oil slides as production talks reach stalemate

Ministers from the world’s largest oil producing nations met over the weekend with the aim of cutting production in an attempt to put a floor under prices. Analysts and commentators had Sunday’s date in their diaries since it was announced […]

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A big week ahead for China

After grabbing the headlines at the start of the year, concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy have been less of a focal point over the past two months. The primary reason for this is almost certainly a less […]

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Sterling’s Quarter from Hell

I’m saying (Brexit) is the biggest domestic risk to financial stability. I would say that, in my judgment, the global risks, including from China, are bigger than the domestic risk.   An adjustment in sterling, a notable depreciation of sterling, […]

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The calm before the storm?

Although I’ve probably just jinxed it, sentiment in the financial markets has been incredibly optimistic throughout March. Equities have been significantly firmer (S&P 500 is up more than 10% in the past six weeks) commodities have been buoyant (oil is […]

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Brexit and GBP – Measuring the Risk

Trying to quantify risk is rarely an easy task. It is usually necessary to estimate at least two independent variables: 1) the probability of an event happening in the future; and 2) the impact of that event on whatever dependent […]

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Draghi’s half-hearted QE

Political groups within the EU/ECB remain disconnected, which makes Draghi send mixed signals to the market: yes to more stimulus (now), but no to more stimulus (later). Yet without a plausible pledge to deliver as much easing as required by […]

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