news archive


A case study on expectation management

Last week brought two major events. On Wednesday, Yellen ‘laid ground for an interest rate rise’, and that did not surprise anyone.  On Thursday, Draghi unveiled QE plans, which turned to be slightly different from expectations.   The first event […]



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From ‘whatever it takes’ to ‘we will do what we must’…

Is Mario Draghi about to extend his monetary policy experiment by doubling down on negative interest rates?   Mario Draghi’s famous pledge in 2012 to ‘do whatever it takes’ to save the euro was the catalyst for a two-year surge […]



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Three factors which should cap the USD surge…

The USD resumed its march higher in November, as expectations of a December rate hike (as we predicted back in September link) continue to grow (markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a December rate hike). The USD has […]



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Costs of dollar funding on the rise backed by new regulatory demands

The appearance of a relatively calm week in the currency markets should not be a reason for complacency. Despite no material directional changes in the level of most of the major currency pairs, dollar funding is becoming increasingly expensive and, […]



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Dollar surges on payroll data

The dollar continued its recent advance last week amid increased expectations that the Fed could begin raising rates as soon as next month. In last week’s report, we highlighted Yellen’s relatively hawkish tone following the Fed meeting two weeks ago […]



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What the Fed said

The market attitude over the last years has shifted from interpreting fundamentals to interpreting what the Fed thinks about fundamentals. And for now, the Fed wants to remain dovish, but maybe consider a hike in December.   The Fed has […]



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Draghi does it again…

Draghi signals ECB ready to extend QEFT, 22nd October 2015   Markets lifted by Draghi hints on more stimulus measuresThe Guardian, 22nd October 2015   The European Central Bank prepares to extend its quantitative-easing programme in DecemberEconomist, 22nd October 2015 […]



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Will the ECB print more money?

“It is quite obvious that in the current macroeconomic situation, additional sets of instruments are necessary”   Ewald NowotnyPresident of the National Bank of AustriaECB Board MemberOctober 15th 2015     “In my view it’s too early to talk about […]



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Carney’s Doublespeak

Speaking at the IMF annual meeting in Peru last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney re-asserted his view that “this decision (to raise UK interest rates) comes into sharper relief around the turn of the year.”   Mr Carney […]



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USD Outlook: Safe Haven vs. Carry Trade

Poor US payroll data on Friday (142K jobs added, compared to an expectation of 200K) have placed further doubts on whether or not the Fed can risk raising rates this year. The market-implied probability of a 2015 rate hike is […]



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