news archive

Just another day in European politics…

Last week saw Germany narrowly avoid slipping into a recession by the slimmest of margins. Official figures for the fourth quarter showed that eurozone’s economic powerhouse remained static after shrinking 0.2% over the previous three-month period. This equates to an […]

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Is the cycle going to end differently this time?

Last week, we saw the Bank of England leave rates unchanged, citing Brexit uncertainty as well as weakening global growth. Whilst this comes as no real surprise, it does however embolden a common theme amongst the developed market central bankers; […]

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A more cautious Fed – two sides to the US economic story?

As of late, it seems that there are two distinct sides to the US economic outlook story. On one side, we’ve seen a distinct change in tone from the Fed, shifting from a strong tightening bias, to somewhat more neutral/dovish, […]

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Is the credit bubble about to burst again?

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at the plush Swiss ski resort has long been a focal point for markets. In years gone by, high profile business leaders, politicians and economists have dominated headlines, but this year, in […]

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Is No Deal Brexit a fading risk?

  It was always going to be a tough week for Prime Minister May, with the likelihood of passing the withdrawal agreement through Parliament always looking doubtful. And so, whilst Tuesday’s defeat came as no surprise, the scale of the […]

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A look ahead to 2019

Following on from last week’s reflections on 2018, now comes the time to look-ahead at what markets might have in store for us during 2019. After ranking as one of the best forecasters of foreign exchange rates amongst all Bloomberg […]

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A look back at 2018

  The currency markets have been surprisingly sedate in recent months, particularly developed market currencies. However, 2018 turned out to be another year where the markets defied the consensus forecast and dumbfounded analysts who forecasted a weaker dollar. In traditional […]

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ECB: Too early to turn off the QE tap?

Last Thursday saw ECB’s last policy meeting for 2018 with confirmation of an end to the €2.6 trillion QE programme. Whilst not a surprise, the bullish headline nature of the announcement was largely ignored by the market. Mario Draghi’s outlook […]

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USD: Are You Ready for a Sell-off?

The USD had a good year in 2018 by virtually all measures: the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up from the beginning of January by 5.7%, as compared to a depreciation of 10.4% in 2017; implied volatilities (using 1 yr […]

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Three reasons to remain cautious about the euro

With so much focus on Brexit and Trump’s threats against China, it has been easy to overlook key influences for the euro in recent weeks. The single currency has been trapped in a relatively well-defined range against the Greenback in […]

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