news archive


Sterling Bounces Back

Sterling rallied hard last week, following a clear hawkish shift by the Bank of England on Thursday.  GBPUSD hit a post Brexit high above 1.36, and GBPEUR pushed into the mid-teens, dampening the talk of GBPEUR parity that had begun […]



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Will the hype around the ECB ever amount to tighter policy?

 In last Monday’s report, we debated whether the recent bull run in the euro can continue. At the ECB meeting on Thursday, Draghi justified our belief that it may struggle with the committee set to maintain a very cautious approach […]



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EUR: Can the Bull Run Continue?

There are only two exogenous factors…that can realistically explain the resilience of (Europe’s) recovery: the collapse in oil prices in 2014-15 and our monetary policy.   Mario Draghi, ECB President April 2017     When we made the decision to […]



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Jackson Hole’s focus on Global Growth and less on Monetary Policy

This past weekend saw the annual central bank conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The Economic Policy Symposium is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world, bringing together economists, financial markets participants, academics, and central bankers from around […]



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Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates?

Is it possible to be bullish on the dollar without being hawkish on the US rates? When the Fed started to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates back in early 2015, the dollar rallied aggressively against all its major […]



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What if there is a crisis?

Currencies trade very differently in a crisis.  We explore what could happen to our FX market outlook if we experience a financial crisis in the next twelve months.      The probability of a financial market crisis erupting in the next […]



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Will Trump Survive To The End Of His First Term In Office?

As special counsel Robert Mueller impaneled a grand jury in the Justice Department’s investigation into Russian election interference, several Republican senators have started moving away from the President.  This has led to increasing speculation as to whether this is a […]



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How have expectations of monetary policy change impacted hedging costs?

Following last week’s FOMC meeting, the committee elected to keep the Fed funds target rate unchanged at 1-1.25%. The outcome was widely expected and hence there was no significant change in the markets. The accompanying statement included a number of […]



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The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join?

The Fed has been hosting the tightening party since December 2015, but has been very lonely.  A couple of weeks ago, Stephen Poloz and the Bank of Canada showed up with their own 25bp hike.  Other central banks seem to […]



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What does faster growth mean for currencies?

Markets have welcomed the news overnight that China’s economy grew 6.9% on an annualised basis during the second quarter. Although Japanese markets were closed, the Hang Seng finished the session +0.31% and commodities (primarily zinc and iron ore) posted solid […]



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