news archive

ECB policy: Less dovish does not mean hawkish

Last week, Mario Draghi announced that the ECB would drop the commitment to increase its bond-buying programme should “the outlook become less favourable” – a pledge dating from December 2016 when the ECB first began to cut its bond-buying programme.   […]

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Cracks in the Foundation

It is said that a building is only as strong as its foundation.  If we imagine a country’s economic output as a building, the foundation it would be built upon is that country’s consumer.  Consumer spending makes up over 50% […]

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Is the panic over?

Less than three weeks ago, the VIX index (the Chicago Board Options Exchanged S&P 500 Volatility Index – also known as the Fear Index) spiked to its highest level since August 2015 amid concerns of rising bond yields and expectations […]

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Political Risk (Quietly) Stalks the Euro

Financial markets were obsessed with European political risk at the beginning of 2017.  As the euro approached parity with the US dollar, the implications of a potential victory for Marine Le Pen in France, or for her fellow euro-sceptic Geert […]

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When will the Bank of England hike?

Last week saw sterling endure a rollercoaster week, rallying to a high of $1.4050 on Thursday before tumbling back to a low of $1.3760 on Friday. Given the recent volatility in financial markets (including equities, rates and commodities) three cents […]

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Is risk appetite waning?

We look at three charts which show that the long period of calm in the financial markets may be under threat.    Tranquillity was the defining feature of financial markets in 2017.  Equity markets were buoyant, fixed income markets began […]

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Trade Trumped: A War on the Horizon?

Last week at the Davos conference, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated:  “Trade wars are fought every single day… So a trade war has been in place for quite a little while, the difference is the U.S. troops are now […]

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What now for the dollar?

Three weeks into the new year and we’ve already reached our Q1 targets for both sterling and the euro against the dollar. Bearish momentum throughout the latter stages of 2017 has continued to drive the dollar lower leaving the trade […]

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What can we expect from 2018?

This week, we look ahead at 2018 and discuss what we expect to be the key drivers in the currency markets. We also take the opportunity to update our forecasts for the next twelve months with particular focus on the […]

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A look back at 2017

  After another year dominated by political uncertainty in Europe and changes in monetary policy across the globe, we shouldn’t be too surprised that the currency markets look very different to how they did this time last year. In traditional […]

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